Research interests

Yellow_star_thistleI am an environmental and resource economist. I work on problems of resource management and decision-making under environmental risk and uncertainty. I work in several applied areas including climate change, invasive species, disease, and fisheries. My methods include econometrics, dynamic optimization, and Bayesian learning processes.

Below is an animation of annual imports of plant material to the U.S. and discoveries of established Hemiptera (true bugs) from 1854-2014.  The data is from the working paper “The hitchhiker’s guide to the greenery…” below.

Working papers


“Moving forward: a simulation-based approach for solving dynamic resource management problems” (with Amanda Faig).

“The hitchhiker’s guide to the greenery: estimating dynamics of 150 years of trade‐driven non‐native species introductions via plant material” (with Matthew MacLachlan and Andrew Liebhold).

“Beyond biomass: valuing genetic diversity in natural resource management”
(with Amanda Faig,„ Marissa Baskett, and Allison Dedrick)….


pdf* = pre-publication, open-access version (where available).

“Characterizing Uncertainty and Learning in the Economics of Resource and Environmental Management” (with Jacob LaRiviere, David Kling, James Sanchirico and Charles Sims).  Forthcoming: Review of Economics and Environmental Policy.

Learning about a moving target in resource management: Optimal Bayesian disease control” (with Matthew MacLachlan and Paul Fackler).  American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 99(1), 140-162, 2016.  pdf*

Harnessing enforcement leverage at the border to minimize biological risk from international live species trade” (with Amanda R. Lindsay, Rebecca S. Epanchin-Niell).  Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 132(B), 98-112, 2016.  pdf*

Accounting for Behavioral Responses during a Flu Epidemic Using Home Television Viewing” (with Gerardo Chowell, Matthew MacLachlan, and Eli P. Fenichel).  BMC Infectious Diseases, 15(21), 2015.

Integrating risk assessment for invasion and disease risk in live animal trade” (with Reuben P. Keller, Peter Daszak, Sarah Elwood, Christina M. Romagosa, Carlos Zambrana-Torrelio). Diversity & Distributions, 21(1), 101–110, 2015.

Epidemiological Economics Is Changing Infectious Disease Management” (with Charles Perrings [lead], Carlos Castillo-Chavez, Gerardo Chowell, Peter Daszak, Eli P. Fenichel, David Finnoff, Richard D. Horan, A. Marm Kilpatrick, Ann Kinzig, Nicolai V. Kuminoff, Simon Levin, Benjamin Morin, Katherine F. Smith). EcoHealth, 11, 464-475, 2014.

Climate-Smart Agriculture Global Research Agenda: Science for Action” (with Kerri Steenwerth and others).  Agriculture & Food Security Journal, 3(11), 1-39, 2014.

Risk aversion and adaptive management: insights from a multi-armed bandit model of invasive species risk.” Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 68(2), 226–242, 2014.

Closing the Screen Door to New Invasions” (with Reuben Keller). Conservation Letters, 7(3), 285–292, 2014.

Pathway-level risk analysis: the net present value of an invasive species policy in the US.” (with Brian Leung,  James A. Turner, Eckehard G. Brockerhoff).  Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 12(5), 273-279, 2014.

Investment and the policy process in conservation monitoring” (with James N. Sanchirico, Mark W. Schwartz and Angela N. Doerr). Conservation Biology, 28(2), 361-371, 2014.

Crediting uncertain ecosystem services in a market” (with Boon-Ling Yeo, Juhwan Lee and Johan Six). Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 66(3), 554-572, 2013.

A density projection approach for non-trivial information dynamics: Adaptive management of stochastic natural resources” (with James N. Sanchirico). Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 66(3), 609-624, 2013.

Repeated experimentation to learn about a flow-pollutant threshold” (with Rolf Groeneveld and Christopher Costello). Environmental and Resource Economics, 58(4), 627-647, 2014.

“Rationalizing international species trade through invasion risk assessment.‚” Invasive Species in a Globalized World, ed. R.P. Keller, M. Cadotte & G. Sandiford. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 163-181, 2015.

“Closing the gap between risk estimation and decision-making: efficient management of trade-related invasive species risk” (with Robert Lieli). The Review of Economics and Statistics 95(2), 632-645, 2013.

“Bioeconomic forecasting of invasive species by ecological syndrome” (with John Schmidt and John Drake). Ecosphere 3(5), 2012.

“Sediment-adsorbed total mercury flux through Yolo Bypass, the primary floodway and wetland in the Sacramento Valley, California” (with Michael Bliss Singer and Thomas Dunne) Science of the Total Environment 412, 203-213, 2011.

“The value of nonindigenous species risk assessment in international trade” (with Reuben Keller and Christina Romagosa) Ecological Economics 70(11), 2145-2153, 2011.
See discussion of this article on The Benefits of Stopping Invasive Species Before They Invade, by Bryan Walsh.

“Long-term correlations in European socioeonomic conditions create a bias towards conclusion that an invasion debt occurs” (Letter to the Editor, with Reuben Keller) Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108(25 E220), 2011.

“Emissions targets and the real business cycle” (with Carolyn Fischer) Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 62(3), 352-366, 2011.

“Adaptive human behavior in epidemiological models” (with Eli Fenichel and others) Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 108(15), 6306-6311, 2011.

“How to Get There From Here: Ecological and Economic Dynamics of Ecosystem Service Provision” (with James N. Sanchirico). Environmental and Resource Economics, 48(2), 243-267, 2011.

“Optimal random exploration for trade-related non-indigenous species risk” (with Christopher J. Costello, and Peyton Ferrier). in Bioinvasions and Globalization: Ecology, Economics, Management, and Policy, ed. C. Perrings, H. Mooney and M. Williamson, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2010.

Unintended biological invasions: Does risk vary by trading partner?” (with Christopher J. Costello, Carol McAusland, and Andy Solow) Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 54(3), 262-276, 2007.